现金流不确定状态下财务指标IRR的应用探析

内含报酬率是目前评价项目可行性的主要指标之一,在应用时都是建立在对现金净流量值给出确切估计的基础上,但在实际经营活动中现金净流量存在着很多不确定性,往往是不能确切地估计出来。在此基础上考虑了各期现金流是概率排序型、各期现金净流量值是一个区间数以及各期现金净流量满足特定的概率分布这三种不确定状态下的IRR应用情形,使其能够更加贴近现实,提高项目评估的准确性。     

人民币汇率变动对国内物价的传导研究——基于投入产出时间序列表的分析

应用33个部门进口非竞争型投入产出时间序列表(1995—2011年),建立投入产出价格模型,考虑了汇率通过成本机制和替代机制的传导作用,量化分析人民币汇率变动对国内各类价格水平的传导作用。结果表明: 汇率变动对国内物价的传导效果不显著;汇率变动对不同部门产品价格的传导存在显著差别;汇率变动对国内物价的传导随着价格链条向下游延伸而逐渐减弱;通过人民币升值缓解国内通胀压力的作用效果非常有限;2013年人民币汇率变动引起国内CPI下降1.09%。     

利率市场化下商业银行风险管理

我国利率市场化已经持续进行了18年,目前只剩下存款利率上限还未完全放开。通过以我国上市商业银行实际为例,在分析评估利率风险、信用风险主要表现和变化趋势基础上,对利率市场化下银行风险管理提出了健全利率风险管理体系、提升利率风险管理技术、提高定价能力和发展中间业务等建议,将利率风险降至最低,不断完善银行风险管理。     

海洋产业结构变化与海洋经济增长

2001年以来,我国海洋产业发展呈现由第二产业到第三产业为主导的演化,第二产业与第三产业发展交替领先,第三产业优势不明显;传统的资源依赖性较强的产业对于海洋经济增长的贡献不断减小,生产生活服务业贡献不断增加,具有发展潜力的高附加值海洋新兴产业发展有待提升.为实现海洋经济又快又好发展,产业结构优化升级应以合理开发利用海洋资源为目标,以市场需求为导向寻找新的增长点;着力培育和发展战略性海洋新兴产业,促进海洋产业结构的不断优化;加大海洋科技教育的投入,增强海洋科技自主创新能力,推动海洋经济发展由资源驱动向创新驱动转变.     

Theorizing income inequality in the face of financial globalization

Based on an extended post-Keynesian model, we find that the association between the savings rate and income inequality is negative if savers’ funds are borrowed by spending households for consumption but positive if savings are channeled to investing firms for production. A negative association, such as the one that exists in the U.S., hinges on an income illusion created by an asset bubble and cheap credit. Thus, financial globalization leads consumption and income inequality to diverge, and the divergence is more extreme if lower-income groups have higher debt ratios. A positive association, such as the one that exists in China, relates to liquidity constraints faced by consumers such that consumption inequality closely follows income inequality. Our results imply that income inequality must be reduced in both types of countries to increase savings in deficit economies with negative associations and to reduce savings in surplus economies with positive associations.     

制造系统生产单元碳排放核算模型

制造业是我国国民经济的支柱产业，但也是环境污染物排放的主要来源、能源消耗主体和温室气体排放大户。制造系统高能耗、高物耗、高碳排放的加工过程是造成制造业碳排放量大的重要原因。生产单元作为制造系统的加工的主体，其碳排放量的核算是确定整个制造系统乃至制造业碳排放总量的关键。本文首先对生产单元的原材料、电能、辅助物料及废屑处理所引起的碳排放进行分析，确定生产单元的碳排放源；其次，产品合格率的不同会造成生产单元输入及输出的成品/半成品数量的差异，进而影响生产单元单位产品的碳排放量，在此基础上，综合考虑了原材料、电能、辅助物料及废屑处理的碳排放情况，构建了给定工艺流程下生产单元碳排放核算模型。最后，结合一汽车排气装置加工实例，分别核算加工过程中九个生产单元的碳排放量，验证了模型的可行性。     

Strengths,weaknesses, opportunities,and threats to housing first in Metro Vancouver

ObjectivesTo understand the experience of Metro Vancouver’s Homelessness Partnering Strategy-funded Housing First program and how it is functioning from the perspective of a representative sample of providers and clients who deliver and receive HF services.MethodsThirty-four clients and providers who currently or formerly delivered HF in Metro Vancouver participated in one-on-one interviews (n = 26) or focus groups (n = 8) between March and April 2017 and data were thematically analyzed.ResultsStrengths of the HF program included: the ability to transition persons from the street into housing with individualized service supports and, in certain cases, with 12-month rent subsidies, household goods, and connection to community resources. Identified program weaknesses were: eligibility criteria, limited rent subsidy funds, limited provider capacity, and workload burden. Suggested opportunities to improve HF were: streamlining federal and provincial reporting and rent subsidy systems and building friendly landlord networks. Potential threats to HF described were: limited affordable housing, stigma and discrimination toward clients, inadequate income assistance, and limited opportunity for cross-sector collaboration.ConclusionsThe delivery of HF in regions that have limited affordable housing presents unique challenges. Recommendations are provided to improve HF practice and policy in these contexts.     

Living with the parents: the purpose of young graduates’ return to the parental home in England

Young graduates in England often return to the parental home after a period of living away during their university studies. Little is known, however, about why they return and how coresidence with parents fits within a life trajectory. This paper reports upon an in-depth cross-sectional qualitative study of young graduates’ coresidence with their parents. It identifies a five-part typology of the purpose of coresidence as perceived by the graduates: a base camp for exploration before settling into adulthood; a launch pad for careers; a savings bank, in particular for future property purchases; a refuge for respite and reflection; and a preferred residence, whether on account of comfort, cultural practice or to support parents. The paper further explores how far these purposes were associated in young adults’ accounts with social structures, individual agency or some combination of these. It concludes that the default understanding of graduates’ return and coresidence as a residual function when other options fail is insufficient. Such a generalisation obscures the different purposes which the return can enable; it overplays some notion of a broken biography rather than the positive contribution of coresidence to graduates’ trajectories towards adulthood and to their life experiences.